Driving change: keep your BEVs on the road, your eyes upon the mileage
The total number of battery electric cars on UK roads at the end of 2023 just missed the 1 million mark. This milestone came just into 2024, meaning BEVs now account for approximately 3% of the total car parc in the UK. Although a record number of motorists switched to electrified transport over the year, there is a mountain to climb before this starts to drastically affect the car parc’s overall makeup. We estimate that this number will grow further - to 1.2 to 1.3 million, approaching 4% - by the end of 2024.
However measuring the number of BEVs on UK roads only tells us part of the story. It is not the number of vehicles, but the miles they drive, that will drive the saving for consumers and the rate at which we reach energy independence by decarbonising road transport.
One way of monitoring this is to look at the ratio of miles driven by petrol and diesel cars (including hybrids) to those by battery electric cars. New AutoMotive analysis of UK MOT data in State of the Switch 2024 shows that in 2023 the ratio of ICE miles to EV miles stood at 25:1, meaning battery electric cars are responsible for approximately 3.8% of miles - higher than the proportion of EVs on the road.
Another way of presenting this finding is to show the mileage of vehicles on UK roads by fuel type. This confirms that hybrids and pure (battery electric) cars are being driven the most in the UK. Petrol vehicles are driving only half the distance. And even diesel vehicles, once known for their popularity with high mileage drivers, come in behind electric cars.
Average miles travelled by fuel type in 2023
This will come as a shock to self-styled climate-sceptic experts who assert that EVs will take a long time to pay off their “carbon debt” of manufacturing, because they are mostly “used as runabouts in towns and cities”. If these high mileage EVs are second car runarounds at all, it shows how much of our routine driving can be accommodated with them, a fact supported by veteran AutoCar journalist Steve Cropley (subscription required), who highlights that a Renault Zoe hs accommodated 90% of his driving, whilst his “backstop” ICE car only ran up 3,000 miles a year.
EVs are already having an impact on the overall car parc, and an outsize impact on miles travelled, although Government needs to redouble its commitment to speeding this up. Our report Switch first, save fast: helping high mileage drivers change to EVs traces vehicle mileage patterns in the UK and sets out low cost and no cost policies to accelerate the switch - from ZEV mandate credits and online calculators through low or zero-interest loans, vouchers and rebates to social leasing..
And what of future mileage trends? We predict that the ratio of miles travelled by ICE cars to those by battery electric cars will continue to fall in 2024, to between 20:1 and 21:1 with a central estimate of 20.8:1. Although it is a long drive to zero tailpipe emission freedom, we have come a long way, and we’re decarbonising day to day.
The ratio of ICE miles to EV miles - over time
