New electric car sales were solid in September, increasing in market share by 2 percentage points compared to the same month last year. New electric registrations also increased in terms of actual sales volume, with 4,765 more EVs being sold in September 2022 than in September 2021. In contrast, new petrol and diesel registrations fell both in terms of market share and actual sales volume. New car sales grew overall, thanks to the increase in electric and hybrid sales, by just under 4% - a positive sign for a market that has been hard hit by supply chain issues and the cost of living crisis in recent months.

⚡ What Our Data Shows

Ben Nelmes, Head of Policy and Research at New AutoMotive, said:

“Once again, electric cars demonstrate impressive growth amid falling sales of petrol and diesel cars. Over the course of 2022, EVs have exhibited the strongest growth of any fuel type.”

“It’s vital the government doesn’t give in to those who oppose a rapid transition to cleaner, cheaper, electrified transport. Strong targets in the ZEV mandate would bring forward vital running cost savings for motorists, while reducing emissions and reducing the UK’s reliance on imported fuel including Russian diesel.”

The full data release will be available here. You can view the data on our interactive dashboard, here when it is published.

About the September bulletin:

This bulletin is a reissue of our September Electric Car Count data, following the identification of an anomaly in the figures we initially published for the month. We obtain our data from the DVLA’s Vehicle Enquiry Service API. The dataset we obtained from this source for September was incomplete, which led to undercounting September registrations. To prevent this from being an issue in the future, we have implemented a new quality control to spot anomalies in the data we receive.

📈 UK market overview

September was a positive month for total UK car sales, which increased 3.73% year-on-year. September is usually a very strong month for new car registrations, so to see market growth this month, in the face of the ongoing cost of living crisis and supply chain issues, is positive.

So far this year, electric car registrations are faring well, with more sold so far this year than at this point in any year previously. Electric car registrations are still growing strongly, and out-performing any year previously by a wide margin. The last few months of the year typically see very strong EV registrations as manufacturers delay some deliveries and bring forward others to meet their obligations under CO2 regulations.

September’s EV sales rose slightly compared to the previous year’s, roughly in line with the overall growth of the new car market. Whilst this is positive, EV sales are still vulnerable to external market pressures; we have seen some evidence that the lease cost on some electric vehicles has ticked up in the last few weeks. This could be due to recent turbulence in UK financial markets or anticipation of future interest rate increases. While it is clear this had little, if any, impact on September’s sales figures, it could be an issue for October’s sales data.

Table 3 provides a full UK market overview, and will be updated from 3rd of the month, or the next working day after that.

📌 Regional highlights

We track regional registrations using a three-month rolling average, which masks big variations in EV market share from month to month. The DVLA regions with the highest share of EVs are as follows:

Oxfordshire - 30%
Anglia - 23%
North East England - 21%
London -20%
Birmingham - 19%

Refer to tables 4 & 5 for full regional statistics.

🚗 The race for EV market share

In a month where Tesla made deliveries - typically once every three or four months - the American manufacturer takes the largest share of the market. This month is no different, with Tesla accounting for over 1 in 4 new EVs. BMW has more than doubled sales of EVs year-on-year. If we look further down the league table, we see some disappointing trends in EV sales. Volkswagen has seen a substantial fall in EV sales. South Korean manufacturer Hyundai has also seen its EV sales fall during this typically strong month.

There are two reasons that manufacturers may see falls in EVs sales: weak consumer demand or an inability to supply vehicles. The strong sales from some manufacturers and overall growth in EVs share of new registrations and in total sales volume means that consumer demand for electric vehicles is not weakening, and manufacturers who can supply EVs to match demand are rewarded.

For the full data, and year-on-year comparisons, refer to table 1 in the full release.

📊 The brands who are quickest to electrify

Genesis comfortably top of this table for September, with 86% of their sales being electric. Jaguar were a distant second place, but EVs were still responsible for 46% of their sales in September - a very respectable figure. MG came in third in this table, with 40% of all their sales being electric vehicles.

We exclude brands that are 100% electric from this table since they do not need to electrify their sales. For the full data, refer to table 2 in the full release.

⚡ The ZEV Mandate explained

What is the ZEV mandate?

The government has promised to introduce a scheme known as a ‘Zero Emissions Vehicle Mandate’, known more commonly as a ZEV mandate. The ZEV mandate is a system of legally binding targets that requires car and van manufacturers to sell an increasing number of zero emissions cars and vans as a proportion of all the cars and vans they sell. This is a kind of policy that has been used for cars in California and China, and is very similar to the system the UK has used to successfully incentivise renewable electricity, known as the ‘Renewables Obligation’.

How do the targets work?

The targets are set as a percentage figure, and will start at 22% in 2024. That means that in 2024, 22% of all cars sold by any manufacturer must be zero emissions. The targets will gradually increase over time. If a manufacturer cannot meet their target, they must either pay a penalty or buy some ‘surplus’ from a manufacturer who has exceeded their targets.

Is this the same thing as the 2030 and 2035 phase-out of sales of petrol, diesel and hybrid cars and vans?

Not quite. The ZEV mandate is the policy that will encourage car manufacturers to shift to selling only zero emissions vehicles in line with the 2030 and 2035 deadlines. This is the policy that will make that ambition a reality. There are also other things the government is doing to realise that ambition, for example investing in charge points and using tax breaks for cars and grants for vans.

When will the ZEV mandate come into force?

It will come into force from 2024. The scheme is currently being designed by the Department for Transport, who recently consulted on how it might work. You can read about their plans here.

About Electric Car Count

Electric Car Count is a monthly data series from New AutoMotive, a not-for-profit independent transport research organisation with a mission to accelerate and support the UK’s transition to electric vehicles. You can find out more about New AutoMotive by visiting www.newautomotive.org/mission

Electric Car Count provides an overview of the newly licensed passenger cars. It is released monthly, in the first few days of each month, providing data on the previous month’s newly licensed cars. In the UK, vehicles must be licensed (also known as registered) to be legally driven on UK roads.

We provide an overview of the state of the market, showing the number of cars registered by each manufacturer, broken down by fuel type. This provides a new way to track the transition to EVs in the UK.

Visit our interactive data dashboard here: www.newautomotive.org/ecc

For more background information on the statistics we provide, you can read our blog about the race for EV market share: www.newautomotive.org/blog/the-race-for-ev-market-share-is-under-way

Data sources & methodology

The data is shows the number of type M1 vehicles (i.e. passenger cars) in the DVLA’s vehicle licensing database as it stands on, or shortly after, the 1st day of the month. The DVLA’s vehicle licensing database is the legal record of all vehicles licensed for use in the UK. We obtain the data from the DVLA’s vehicle enquiry service API, and the DVSA’s MOT history API.

The data covers all cars with a standard form UK vehicle registration mark (VRM, i.e. the vehicle’s number plate), but does not capture any vehicles with personalised VRMs.

Terminology

We use the following terms to refer to vehicle fuel types:

Pure electric: battery electric, or other purely electric-powered vehicles (such as hydrogen). These are vehicles where the drivetrain of the vehicle is only electric, with no facility to drive using a fossil fuelled engine.

Hybrid: vehicles that have the ability to drive under electric power or under fossil fuel power. These include vehicles classified by the DVLA as “hybrid electric”, “electric diesel”, for example.

Q&A

Why are the numbers different from other organisations, such as the SMMT?

Our numbers are typically slightly different from those published by the SMMT. We cannot speculate as to why this is because the SMMT do not publish the methodology for obtaining their vehicle data.

Our data is based on the DVLA’s legal record of vehicles licensed as it stands on the first of the month.

Our methodology does not capture newly registered vehicles with a personalised number plate. These take longer to appear in our database, and are not included in the monthly release. We do not believe that these are a statistically significant part of the market.

Will you make this data open and accessible to more organisations?

Yes, we are happy to supply the data to anyone where doing so will not conflict with our mission. We encourage people to reach out to us on data@newautomotive.org.

EV sales grew in September, as car market experienced a slight resurgence