Strongest Month Of The Year So Far For e-Van Market
Provisional figures for van sales in the UK shows a positive month for e-vans, which claimed 7% of the overall market. This is an increase of 55% compared to last year's figures - a promising level of growth. However, 19,169 diesel vans were also registered this month, as diesel dominated the market - as it usually does. The e-van market still has a significant way to go to challenge this dominance, and manufacturers must take urgent steps to ensure they are on track for the 2030 phase-out.
⚡ What Our Data Shows
Ciara Cook, Research and Policy Officer at New AutoMotive, said:
“The higher targets the government has laid out for e-van take-up in the upcoming Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate fires the starting gun on the transition to cleaner, cheaper logistics. These higher targets, combined with the e-van grants still available, should boost companies that are ahead of the curve, such as UK-made Vauxhall Vivaro electric vans.”
“Manufacturers whose performance is currently lagging behind these targets urgently need to invest in the electrification of their model range. With the market still wide open, there is all to play for, but companies must act quickly to secure their share of the future van market.”
“Those high-volume marques who are currently seeing low registrations of e-vans must take steps to ensure that they bring forward viable, popular electric vans in the coming years otherwise they risk being overtaken in the market by early adopters.”
The full data release is available here. You can view the data on our interactive dashboard, here.
📈 UK market overview
Overall, e-vans have had a stronger month compared to the first three months of 2023. This is encouraging. They continue to be the second most popular fuel type in the market, with diesels remaining steady at around 90% of the market. So far this year e-vans have accounted for just over 5% of the market in the UK, a steady start to the year.
For the full data, and year-on-year comparisons, refer to table 1 in the full release.
🚗 ZEV Mandate: State of the Market
The government has set out their plans for electrification with the publication of the ZEV Mandate. We will therefore start to track how manufacturers are performing against their first year targets, which will be implemented in 2024. The van targets are currently set at 10% for the first year, having been revised upwards from 8% due to the strength of the e-van market. The ZEV Mandate is a trading scheme where manufacturers have an allowance - they must trade their credits to meet their targets and avoid a buyout payment.
Overall market credit surplus/deficit -2,897 credits
We estimate that if a ZEV Mandate had been in force for the last 12 months at the 2024 levels there would be a credit deficit of 2,897 credits across the whole scheme. This would mean that manufacturers would have to borrow or buy out of their regulatory obligations. Due to the deficit, the cost of a credit would be equal to the buy-out price of £15,000 per credit.
Individual Manufacturer ZEV Mandate Performance
The table below shows the 16 marques which will participate in the ZEV Mandate for vans. It shows each manufacturer's balance before and after the proposed CO2 flexibilities are applied. Vauxhall. Mercedes-Benz, Peugeot, Maxus, Toyota Nissan, Iveco, and Renault Trucks would have exceeded the target and would have access credits to bank and trade. Ford, Volkswagen, Renault, Citroen, Isuzu, Fiat, Land Rover and Man are all set to have a credit deficit and therefore would need to buy or borrow to reach their targets.
📊 The brands who are quickest to electrify
Maxus again tops the table with 57% of their registrations this month being fully electric, however with them registering a fairly small number of vans it is Vauxhall in second which shows to be a strong marque in both market share, and electrification. A quarter of their total registrations were electric this month which strongly signals a shift towards electrification in the marque.
A marque which does not currently feature in the top 10 is Ford. Less than 1% of their sales were electric this month, showing a steep hill which needs to be climbed if the manufacturer is to stay relevant. Ford has a strong electrification plan with more models expected in the coming years. However, they have a target of 100% hybrid and electric sales by 2026, with hybrids a small fraction of the market. It means they need to transition at a fast pace in the next three years to make their target and ensure they remain dominant after diesel vans have been phased out.
We exclude brands that are 100% electric from this table since they do not need to electrify their sales. For the full data, refer to table 2 in the full release.
📊 The race for EV market share
Vauxhall again showed this month that it is dominating registrations in this section of the market. Nearly half of all e-van registrations were Vauxhall, and they are well ahead of their nearest competitor Citroen at 12% of the market. This will be encouraging for the manufacturer as they look ahead to complying with the ZEV Mandate. Maxus has fallen down the table this month, accounting for 7% of the market, a fall of 10% market share compared to last month.
Looking further down the table shows a number of high volume manufacturers who are failing to make a significant dent in the e-van market. Ford, Renault, Volkswagen, and Mercedes-Benz are all traditionally high volume manufacturers, yet are accounting for a tiny percentage of the e-van market. These manufacturers who have popular diesel models must replicate this success or risk significant losses in market share in the coming years.
Notes
About Electric Van Count
Electric Van Count is a monthly data series from New AutoMotive, a not-for-profit independent transport research organisation with a mission to accelerate and support the UK’s transition to electric vehicles. You can find out more about New AutoMotive by visiting www.newautomotive.org/mission
Electric Van Count provides an overview of the newly licensed vans. It is released monthly, on the second Monday of each month, providing data on the previous month’s newly licensed vans. In the UK, vehicles must be licensed (also known as registered) to be legally driven on UK roads.
We provide an overview of the state of the market, showing the number of cars registered by each manufacturer, broken down by fuel type. This provides a new way to track the transition to Electric vans in the UK.
Visit our interactive data dashboard here: https://newautomotive.org/evc
For more background information on the statistics we provide, you can read our blog about the race for EV market share: www.newautomotive.org/blog/the-race-for-ev-market-share-is-under-way
Data sources & methodology
The data shows the number of type N1 vehicles (vehicles for the carriage of goods with a maximum mass not exceeding 3.5 tonnes) in the DVLA’s vehicle licensing database as it stands on, or shortly after, the 1st day of the month. The DVLA’s vehicle licensing database is the legal record of all vehicles licensed for use in the UK. We obtain the data from the DVLA’s vehicle enquiry service API, and the DVSA’s MOT history API.
The data covers all vans with a standard form UK vehicle registration mark (VRM, i.e. the vehicle’s number plate), but does not capture any vehicles with personalised VRMs.
Terminology
We use the following terms to refer to vehicle fuel types:
Pure electric: battery electric, or other purely electric-powered vehicles (such as hydrogen). These are vehicles where the drivetrain of the vehicle is only electric, with no facility to drive using a fossil fuelled engine.
Hybrid: vehicles that have the ability to drive under electric power or under fossil fuel power. These include vehicles classified by the DVLA as “hybrid electric”, “electric diesel”, for example.
Q&A
Why are the numbers different from other organisations, such as the SMMT?
Our numbers are typically slightly different from those published by the SMMT. We cannot speculate as to why this is because the SMMT do not publish the methodology for obtaining their vehicle data.
Our data is based on the DVLA’s legal record of vehicles licensed as it stands on the first of the month.
Our methodology does not capture newly registered vehicles with a personalised number plate. These take longer to appear in our database, and are not included in the monthly release. We do not believe that these are a statistically significant part of the market.
Will you make this data open and accessible to more organisations?
Yes, we are happy to supply the data to anyone where doing so will not conflict with our mission. We encourage people to reach out to us on data@newautomotive.org.