Should the government ‘give us a brake’ - or accelerate the switch?
The August silly season seems to come earlier every year. Hand-wringing Times editorials, a Daily Mail campaign, and now the Sun demanding “Give us a Brake”, the media have decided to focus on electric vehicles. Here’s why Ministers are more likely to put the pedal to the metal and accelerate the UK’s transition to electric cars.
First, while talking heads exchange punditry, motorists have been voting with their feet. Sales of petrol and diesel cars have sharply declined, based on data from our monthly sales tracker, Electric Car Count. Diesel car sales have nearly vanished, plummeting by 95% since their peak in 2017. Similarly, petrol car sales are down by 50% since 2019. While the media engages in academic debates about the government’s ambition to end sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2030, consumers look likely to end sales of petrol and diesel cars well before then.
As drivers shun the internal combustion engine, car companies have responded to the government’s 2030 ambition by spending big on R&D, new production and planning geared towards the switch. The automotive industry is bringing forward new models and scaling up production - the biggest problem they face is making enough electric cars fast enough to satisfy consumer demand. If the government stepped back from the 2030 target, these companies would prioritise other markets to sell electric cars into. The UK would risk becoming a dumping ground for out-dated, polluting vehicles, a Cuban-style collection of landline-era cars.
Petrol car market share 2010-23
Diesel car market share 2010-23
A common cry now heard is that the 2030 phase-out needs to be rolled back because infrastructure is failing to keep up with demand. However, according to current data, the number of charging points is growing at a remarkable 35% per year. The government has set a target of 300,000 chargepoints by 2030. At this rate of growth we will hit this a year early in 2029. This remarkable growth can continue only so long as sales of electric cars continue to grow. If the EV market stagnates, charge point installations will peter out as business opportunities shrink. Any rowing back of the 2030 roll out is likely to slow charge point installation.
The UK is playing catch up to the US and China in the global race to cultivate battery manufacturing . JLR owner Tata has recently announced a £4bn investment in new battery manufacturing in Somerset. Investments like these don't materialise on their own; they require deliberate efforts by government and supportive policy to secure green jobs and green growth. Stepping back from the 2030 ambition would imperil this investment and growth.
As for the notion that electric vehicle adoption will strain the grid, this is a matter of simple calculation:
By approximately 2030, electric vehicles are projected to consume only about 3-5% of the grid's capacity. This estimate might even prove conservative, given the potential for future efficiency improvements in the technology. It's important to base discussions on accurate data rather than relying on the misconception that EVs will overload the grid. The electric vehicle adoption is not happening overnight and any localised problems can be rectified by intense planning.
In conclusion, it is crucial for the government to put its foot down and accelerate the transition to electric vehicles. With declining conventional fuel vehicle sales and an inevitable shift towards EVs, embracing this change proactively and sensibly can bring significant benefits to the UK. The decline of traditional fuel sources and the rapid expansion of charging points prove that the transition is already underway. By seizing this opportunity, the UK can secure its position in the burgeoning EV industry, create new job opportunities, and contribute to a cleaner transport system.