Overseas EV makers have a toehold in China. They need to hold on to it.

European and Japanese car maker market share has tumbled (see above), as China has shifted decisively away from petrol and diesel engines (chart below),

But the sales of EVs in China by foreign brands is rarely reported. That’s why we covered the topic in our most recent quarterly Global EV Tracker webinar.

Tesla retains an EV market share of just under 14%, but other European and Japanese manufacturers are scrabbling around in the 0.1 to 3% range (see below).  

EV market share of non-Chinese brands by quarter, 2021 to 2024

Why are these tiny toeholds significant? 3 reasons. 

First, their market share is holding pretty steady. And given the 50% increase in EV sales from the first 3 quarters of 2021 to the first 3 quarters of 2024, that means it’s the only part of their product offering that’s actually growing.   

Second, the Chinese market is - obviously - huge. Here are the EV sales for each of the top 5 non-Chinese brands in Germany - still the largest EU market - by comparison. 

Battery electric cars sold in China and Germany, year to date 

In Germany, Toyota and Honda barely bother to sell EVs at all. In China, they’re really trying.  

Which leads to the third reason. China’s new CO2 emissions standards will require foreign brands who want to sell any cars at all to sell more EVs - or face buying credits from the competition.

Under plans out for consultation, average vehicle emission standards will tighten to 101g/km in 2026 and 85g/km by 2029. In comparison, the headline EU standard, with a variety of easements, will be 93.6g/km throughout. 

Chinese new energy vehicle manufacturers have already met these targets, but non-Chinese manufacturers will need to go much further and faster in future - with at least a quarter of their sales being battery electric, or at least half being plug-ins. 

So those toeholds are significant. Manufacturers need to retain them and grow them, or say bài bài  to the Chinese market -25 million car sales every year, twice as many as Europe - for good.