02/11/2021

Transcript:

Nick Ferrari: Richard, now, Lord Alan is head of policy and tech for New AutoMotive - an independent transport research organization - and has served in a senior capacity at Facebook. Lord Alan, is it [ULEZ] the slam dunk success that the mayor is suggesting?

Richard Allan: Good Morning, I certainly think it is. I mean, I was just interested in listening to your previous caller about these concerns about the cost of the transition to greener net zero technologies, and with electric vehicles, what's interesting is that they're already much, much cheaper to maintain and run. We calculate that people save on average around 700 pounds a year, by making the switch. Policies that drive people towards a cheaper technology, I think are a good thing.

Nick Ferrari: That’s if you can afford that electric vehicle.

Richard Allan: That's right. And today we have to be clear that the upfront cost is higher for an electric vehicle. However, you'll find that very quickly - within two or three years - as the manufacturing ramps up, [electric cars] are going to end up being cheaper to buy as well as cheaper to run and maintain.

Nick Ferrari: I'm thinking of some of the calls I took as ULEZ was introduced a week or so ago. And there are literally people who are just about managing to keep that small plumbing business going because of the pandemic, because they weren't able to work and they there's no way they can get near the outlay for an electric van. I put it to you. I know you didn't implement this, but there needed to be a scrappage scheme or some kind of help scheme to get those plumbers, those gas engineers into electric.

Richard Allan: I mean, at the moment, the figures are that it's around 20% - one in five of new vehicles in London - that are being bought to battery electric vehicles. That was up from one in ten, a year ago. It's growing rapidly, but you're right. There are people who can't afford to make the switch now. In many cases, what they're doing is switching to petrol vehicles, where petrol vehicles are up to 15 years old and therefore, there are quite cheap ones on the second and market that are still eligible [for ULEZ].

My understanding from data released by Auto Trader is that the second-hand prices of old diesels are still holding up. There is an option for people to trade in their old diesel vehicle and buy an old petrol vehicle at reasonable cost now, to tide them over until we get to that point where these electric vehicle prices have dropped and they become a much more attractive option.

Nick Ferrari: Lastly, so those who say, if you really wanted that level of air quality, you wouldn't be able to pay a fee to get it. You would be banned from entering the city - full stop - period ends. How do you respond to that?

Richard Allan: I think if you do, we may see that it's an ugly acronym, but we may see it as a ZEV - a zero emissions zone - which would be to effectively say that we only want in city centres, vehicles that are not pumping out this dangerous gas (such as nitrogen dioxide).

The concentration city sounds, I think, calls for that. We all know what they say for about the harm and deaths that are caused by this pollution. I think that's going to happen in the future that in each stage there's a tipping point and what we need are these joined up policies. Local boroughs in London [have] to put in the charging infrastructure, the mayor to put in policies like this, the national government to put in policies that encourage and help people to buy electric vehicles.

Once you do all of that, I think maybe three, four years time, we are going to reach a point where those kinds of bands become realistic and actually popular.

Nick Ferrari: I look forward to being in this place of work on that day, because we'll see how it goes down. And thank you, Lord Allan, head a policy and tech for New AutoMotive - an independent transport research organisation.