Introducing the New AutoMotive Index
From the invention of the railways to the arrival of the car, Britain has been shaped by the rise and fall of new forms of transport. The next big transport revolution will be the switch to electric cars, spurred on by the necessity of action on climate change, as well as the arrival of better and cheaper technologies. Motorists will benefit from huge savings on fuel, and electric cars are key to cleaning up the air in our choking cities. But for many, not least the Transport Secretary, the rise of electric cars necessitates careful planning and navigation.
The transition to electric cars is vital to meeting the UK’s legally binding climate change targets. Transport is the single biggest contributor to the UK’s emissions, so electric cars are key to the UK doing its bit to combat climate change. The Climate Change Act 2008 places an obligation on government ministers to make sure that the UK’s carbon emissions are reduced to zero by 2050.
The UK government recognises the necessity to move to electric cars in the UK, and has therefore promised to ban sales of new petrol, diesel and hybrid cars. The only question is when the ban comes into force, and ministers are due to decide this any day now. We thought we would look at what a range of different dates, which it’s rumoured ministers are considering, would do for the UK’s carbon emissions.
That is the subject of our first report ‘The Missing Metric’, which is published today. Our most striking finding was how slow it takes for the stock of cars on the road to change. Cars typically have a lifespan of 14 years. Electric car sales have increased in 2020, and they might make up 10% of all new cars. But British motorists typically buy around 2.5 million new cars a year, so even if all those sales were electric, it would only have a small effect on the pool of 32 million cars currently on the road in the UK. That creates a problem for ministers, who have to reduce emissions in line with climate change targets. Our modelling suggests that, if ministers rely only on a sales ban to reduce emissions from cars, they would need to ban sales of petrol, diesel and hybrid cars in 2026 to meet targets.
Let’s take a step back, and consider the problem from a different perspective. Fossil fuelled cars only emit pollutants when they drive around. If people drive them less, emissions will go down, regardless of how many cars are on the road. If more of those miles can be done in electric cars, for example because car share schemes are able to use electric cars or because people doing trips together can choose to travel in an electric car rather than a fossil fuelled car, then that will help reduce emissions by displacing fossil fuelled miles with electric car miles.
Cars clock up 255 billion miles every year on UK roads. At present, there is no measure of how many of those miles are travelled in electric vehicles. But the data is available. Every year, when cars have an MOT test, the mileage is recorded and sent to the Driver and Vehicle Standards Agency (DVSA). We have access to that data, and are building a live tool – the New AutoMotive Index – that will measure the UK’s vehicle mileage, break it down by carbon intensity, and allow anyone who needs to know to view it on our website. This tool will provide a live tracker of the progress of the UK’s electric vehicle revolution.
The old adage has it that what gets measured gets managed, and our tool will be a vital first step to tackling the UK’s road transport emissions problem. We hope to launch it in the next few weeks, so do check back. Later, we hope to add more functions, such as geographical breakdowns. That would allow us to identify areas of the country that are leading the electric vehicle revolution, and places which are falling behind. If you want to keep up to date with our progress, make sure to join our mailing list. And if you have ideas or expertise to contribute, get in touch about partnership opportunities.
The Missing Metric report
Beyond the ban on sales of new petrol, diesel and hybrid cars
In order to plan the transition to an electric transport infrastructure properly, it is important to find a measure which takes into account transition issues and the long tail of used combustion cars. This research note sets out how we are going to go about measuring the transition to electric vehicles in the UK.
