Diesel’s Deceptive Demise
In the summer of 2020 UK new car registrations passed a historic milestone: the number of electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrids outsold diesel cars for the first time in UK history.
The rise of EVs has been led by non plug-in hybrids, but closely followed by battery electric vehicles (BEVs).
Sales of all plug-in hybrids now exceeds 10% market share, and they are growing fast.
The fall in demand for diesel has been driven by tightening emissions standards, the introduction of clean air zones (most notably the ultra-low emissions zone in London), changing public attitudes towards air pollution, as well as the increasing affordability and range of EV models.
The rise of EVs and the impact of COVID on use has given succour to local authorities struggling to deal with illegally high levels of air pollution in the UK’s towns and cities, much of which is as a result of Britain’s love affair with diesel. Many English local councils have paused plans for clean air zones. Four English local authorities - Bath, Bristol, Leeds and Birmingham - had plans to start charging drivers of the most polluting vehicles from early in 2021. Over 30 more councils have been developing plans for clean air zones.
But is diesel over and done? Don’t be so sure.
Sales patterns may be changing, but fuel consumption data tell a different story. Whilst new diesel car sales may well fall to near zero over the next few years in absolute terms there will still be over 200,000 sold in 2020, and there are 12 million already on UK roads.
As we noted in our report ‘The Missing Metric’, just looking at sales data neglects the long plateau of diesel cars that will remain on Britain’s roads for a long time to come. The key question is whether diesel consumption will now start to fall. The fuel consumption data do not tell us - they only show the situation up until the end of 2018.
What is needed is a live, up-to-date way of tracking vehicle use. This would tell decision makers in town halls and Whitehall whether we have turned the corner on our diesel problem. The good news is that we are creating it. By analysing hundreds of millions of MOT records, our forthcoming index tool will provide a live measure of how many miles are being driven by petrol, diesel and electric cars, providing the most up to date check on whether Britain’s love affair with diesel has started to sour.
Absent a major and permanent shift in the way we use transport, an early analysis of the data suggests diesel is not going anywhere any time soon. That’s bad news for the millions living with illegally high levels of air pollution, and may mean that councils will not be able to shelve their plans for clean air zones just yet.