Six million EVs on the road means a lifetime reduction in tail-pipe emissions of over 150 million tonnes to date. With the EV market entering a phase where its impact is getting noticeable, a closer look at the chart reveals at least five key issues that point to how the global EV market may now play out.

As we debate the fine details of the transport transition from internal combustion engines (ICE) to EVs, it is useful to stand back and see if the switch is falling into a predictable pattern, or if history is this time a false steer. Sales of Model T Fords (from 1908 - 1916) and Teslas (from 2012- 2020), in fact do follow an absolute trend that indicates history providing a clue.

As battery prices fall, you can either go further for a certain price, or go 100 miles for lower and lower cost. Many Chinese consumers are choosing the latter. Low range EVs are a feature, not a bug - and they are creating a whole new market. Does this mean that Tesla’s reign is over, or will Western consumers reject the paradigm?

Last year, the UK government fired the starting gun on the biggest race in the history of the car industry. By 2030, all new cars sold in the UK must either be fully electric, or a hybrid that is able to travel a significant distance with zero emissions. As the battle lines get drawn, and the leaders emerge - the eventual winner is still not obvious, but some observations can be drawn.

The fall in demand for diesel has been driven by tightening emissions standards, the introduction of clean air zones (most notably the ultra-low emissions zone in London), changing public attitudes towards air pollution, as well as the increasing affordability and range of EV models. Does this mean diesel over and done, however? Don’t be so sure.