Global EV dominance: five things to consider

Source: Clean Technica

The chart above shows the best-selling top 20 EVs globally; January through July 2021.

At the aggregate level, global EV sales growth remains strong - increasing over 90% globally - with expectations of over 6 million units on the road by the end of this year. New sales likely to be around 7% globally, and higher in key markets such as Europe.

Six million EVs on the road means a lifetime reduction in tail-pipe emissions of over 150 million tonnes to date.

With the EV market entering a phase where its impact is getting noticeable, a closer look at the chart reveals at  least five key issues that point to how the global EV market may now play out. 

1. The dominance of Tesla
   Tesla continues to dominate global EV sales - with it's cars being the first and third best selling models. It would be surprising if this trend was reversed in the near future.
   

2. The rise of Chinese EV manufacturing
   11 of the top 20 models are Chinese, with the remarkable rise of many new competitors, including the Wuling Hongguang Mini EV.
    

3. The likely dominance of BEVs
   About 70% of plug-in sales globally are fully electric BEVs. This ratio will increase as EVs become cheaper and more plentiful. The bad news is that “mild hybrids” are increasing in popularity - these are fossil fuel vehicles with modest electric input.
   

4. The (expected) striking back of the car empire
   VW has now risen to a top 5 position in global sales after its strong pivot to EVs in 2019. There is a clear benefit to combining a vision, with a massive global supply chain, and strong branding.
   

5. First mover advantage
   Despite the obvious advantage seen by the likes of Tesla and BYD. The early mover advantage has paid dividends to those who used it.

What does all this add up to? 

The global car market has likely changed forever due to electrification. It is probably going to be dominated by Tesla-like firms (electric from the get go), Chinese firms and some early-moving powerful ICE firms such as VW. That leaves some surprising laggards out in the cold - Mercedes, BMW, Land-Rover, Vauxhall - unless they pivot quickly. 

Risks remain: the diversionary tactics of laggards to 100% unpluggable, fossil-fuel “hybrids” for example, slowing development of the global fleet beyond the walls of this map.

But history might record 2021, and this chart, as the first glimpse of how electrified transport globally will come to pass.