Although companies like Zero are still going, and indeed carving out a sizable niche in the realm of EV motorcycles, there are around 1.2 million motorcycles on our roads, and as of the end of 2020, just 0.4% of them were electric.

This could lead one to the conclusion that electric motorcycles are a failure, a niche toy. But don’t be mistaken, the motorcycle market saw its highest electric market share last month.

In a world where 51% of any given group is required to initiate change - we are still a long way away from EVs being the default perception of the automobile. With a current total market share of just 1.1% EV, is the “electric revolution” just a techy fad?

At New AutoMotive, we would like to reframe this narrative.

2021 has been a watershed moment for EV vehicles, not just in the UK but globally too. Approximately 11.65% of the new car market were EVs.

Due to how fast this sector is developing it is hard to highlight exactly where we will be in 12 months time - but this should be seen as a positive. 2022 will need to not only replicate 2021, but we will need to see a quickening of sales, manufacturing announcements, infrastructure development and other supporting policies to ensure we build on, and accelerate from the progress made last year.

A chart on twitter has divided opinion on how the EV adoption will occur and what it will mean for incumbent manufacturers and new entrants into the automotive market.

It is provocatively labelled the ‘Valley of Death’ for traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) manufacturers who cling too long to their preferred technology, even as EVs start to dominate new sales in key markets such as China, Europe – and now the US.

Supported by a coalition including New AutoMotive, EVA England and Octopus Energy I spoke to over 40 EV drivers of different ages and professional backgrounds from all over the UK.

My research showed that people buy and run EVs for a combination of rational and emotional reasons…

Mass electrification of transport, much as mass electrification of lighting, is a signal of energy progress – from the inefficient burning of fuels to the more efficient, cheaper and cleaner use of electricity.

It is analogous to the shift from candles and gas lamps to the incandescent light bulb, and now LEDs. 

‘Discourses of climate delay’ pervade current debates on climate action. These discourses accept the existence of climate change, but justify inaction or inadequate efforts. In contemporary discussions on what actions should be taken, by whom and how fast, proponents of climate delay would argue for minimal action or action taken by others.

Six million EVs on the road means a lifetime reduction in tail-pipe emissions of over 150 million tonnes to date. With the EV market entering a phase where its impact is getting noticeable, a closer look at the chart reveals at least five key issues that point to how the global EV market may now play out.

As we debate the fine details of the transport transition from internal combustion engines (ICE) to EVs, it is useful to stand back and see if the switch is falling into a predictable pattern, or if history is this time a false steer. Sales of Model T Fords (from 1908 - 1916) and Teslas (from 2012- 2020), in fact do follow an absolute trend that indicates history providing a clue.

Plug-in car sales in China breached the magical threshold of 10% market share in April 2021, but that is not the main story. Why? - because EV sales in China have been on the up for several years. No, the real story is three other factors, and they point possibly to a very large shift in the world of automobiles.

In an alternative imagined world where CO2 was a benign molecule that did no harm, there is a fundamental question to ask – would electric vehicles still be a better choice than internal combustion engine or hybrid-fossil fuel cars for transport? The answer may surprise you - as EVs provide numerous benefits beyond their environmental credentials (which should still not be overlooked).

The UK government has chosen to announce the phase out of sales of petrol and diesel cars at just the right time. We are at a Goldilocks moment: just when EVs are becoming affordable, but before they become so cheap that we remain stuck in the past with the sharply declining technology of combustion engines. What does this mean for drivers?