“You cannot displace horses” - History’s guide to the future of EVs.

Source Tesla / Wikipedia, Sam Korus https://twitter.com/skorusARK/status/1419781620828082176?s=20

History is an imperfect guide to the future, but there are few alternatives. 

As we debate the fine details of the transport transition from internal combustion engines (ICE) to EVs, it is useful to stand back and see if the switch is falling into a predictable pattern, or if history is this time a false steer.

Sales of Model T Fords (from 1908 - 1916) and Teslas (from 2012- 2020), see chart, in fact do follow an absolute trend that indicates history providing a clue. 

Of course there are many differences to consider: population size favours Model T Ford performance, but vehicle complexity and competition suggest Tesla are making major progress. 

What remains the same is the language, scepticism to change and incumbent attitude.

The Model T Ford was far from the first “car” produced in the US - that goes back to the 1890s, 10-15 years ahead of the Model T. 

But early “horseless carriages” as they were called, assuming horses would remain the dominant transport mode, were expensive, difficult to use, and had low range. Sound familiar ? 

Much the same as today we have to call cars “electric vehicles” - assuming “non-electric” vehicles will remain central.

In addition many bankers and investors refused to believe that the car could replace the horse and carriages - an attitude that has held back many incumbents today from transitioning to EVs. 

However history could still be wrong-footed:

The shift today is not a major dislocation from animal to machine, but from a less disruptive machine to similar, faster, cleaner machine. 

This could move things differently. 

An accelerator to  change is that it is far more  limited than in the Model T’s era -an  ICE VW Golf to an e-VW Golf.

Decelerating change is the depth of incumbent ploys to delay it: hybrids, poor charging infrastructure, spurious reports and analyses, and perhaps consumers saying why bother ?

Standing back and looking on 10 years from the Tesla-EV era beginning it is easier to see history becoming a clearer and clearer guide.

Sure, there will continue to be issues, and commentary about how electricity is not clean, and range anxiety and charging point problems. 

But in all likelihood by 2030 history will barely register these transitory debates: and record instead that EVs became the dominant mode of transport in a classic technology curve adoption pattern, first noticed in the late 2010s, and in line with data from a century before. 

They became cheaper, faster and more convenient - and their environmental impact suited a more electrified and efficient energy world. The resistant voices will be chronicled like the banker in this commentary recounted by one of America’s first car-makers  “You’re crazy if you think this fool contraption you’ve been wasting your time on will ever displace the horse.”

History may be an imperfect guide to the future, but here she looks on her game.