The UK needs to become a leader in the energy transition, or someone else will

The global energy transition is no culture war. Despite contrarian arguments recently increasing in popularity - the long-term consequences of rejecting Net Zero will likely leave the UK poorer, more isolated, and increasingly dependent on foreign oil.

There has been a rise in contrarian arguments against the UK’s bid to become a world leader in the global energy transition. The basic argument appears to be that we should delay the transition to renewable energy, revert back to fossil fuels, and so (er, somehow) become energy independent – overlooking the fact we do not have enough oil and gas to do this. 

‘Discourses of climate delay’ pervade current debates on climate action. These discourses accept the existence of climate change, but justify inaction or inadequate efforts. In contemporary discussions on what actions should be taken, by whom and how fast, proponents of climate delay would argue for minimal action or action taken by others.

Six million EVs on the road means a lifetime reduction in tail-pipe emissions of over 150 million tonnes to date. With the EV market entering a phase where its impact is getting noticeable, a closer look at the chart reveals at least five key issues that point to how the global EV market may now play out.

As we debate the fine details of the transport transition from internal combustion engines (ICE) to EVs, it is useful to stand back and see if the switch is falling into a predictable pattern, or if history is this time a false steer. Sales of Model T Fords (from 1908 - 1916) and Teslas (from 2012- 2020), in fact do follow an absolute trend that indicates history providing a clue.

As battery prices fall, you can either go further for a certain price, or go 100 miles for lower and lower cost. Many Chinese consumers are choosing the latter. Low range EVs are a feature, not a bug - and they are creating a whole new market. Does this mean that Tesla’s reign is over, or will Western consumers reject the paradigm?

2020 was a year of profound change for the UK car market. The coronavirus pandemic severely disrupted car manufacturing and sales - alongside the government’s announcement to ban the sales of new petrol and diesel vehicles. What lessons can we draw from such an extraordinary year?

The UK government has chosen to announce the phase out of sales of petrol and diesel cars at just the right time. We are at a Goldilocks moment: just when EVs are becoming affordable, but before they become so cheap that we remain stuck in the past with the sharply declining technology of combustion engines. What does this mean for drivers?

The fall in demand for diesel has been driven by tightening emissions standards, the introduction of clean air zones (most notably the ultra-low emissions zone in London), changing public attitudes towards air pollution, as well as the increasing affordability and range of EV models. Does this mean diesel over and done, however? Don’t be so sure.