‘Discourses of Delay’ versus the facts at play
Why contrarian arguments will not change the ultimate outcome for fossil fuel decline
There has been a rise in contrarian arguments against the UK’s bid to become a world leader in the global energy transition. The basic argument appears to be that we should delay the transition to renewable energy, revert back to fossil fuels, and so (er, somehow) become energy independent – overlooking the fact we do not have enough oil and gas to do this.
Sadly, and unfortunately, the terrible war between Russia and Ukraine exacerbates this issue. In fact, according to some detractors, the UK should create it’s own oil and gas, and reduce the importation of Putin molecules in order to be energy independent.
We strongly believe this stance to be incorrect.
Energy is now far far more than fossil fuels.
For sure, 82% of world energy is coal, gas and oil (fossil fuels), but that is declining and it is an average.
In many countries fossil fuels are only a fraction of the energy system - for example most of the OECD. Norway, France, Sweden and Scotland already rely on mainly nuclear, wind and water. Also the average life-cycle of an oil and gas project from discovery to production is 25 years, and thus this energy system is not suited to rapid world energy events.
In contrast, we have plenty of fast-cycle wind and solar power to become truly energy independent, wherever we are.
Contrarian arguments against these new technologies come straight out of the ‘Discourses of Delay’ playbook – which identifies four sets of tactics:
Redirect responsibility
Push non-transformative solutions
Emphasise the downsides’ of climate policy
‘Surrender’ to climate change
But consider this: the world consumes 14 billion tonnes of fossil fuels every year, and so emits 35 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide every year (essentially carbon plus oxygen) from the combustion process dumped into the air around us. That’s about 5 tonnes CO2 for every one of us – a mixture of combustion from our cars, our electricity and our heating, plus a few other broader industrial uses such as powering vans, trucks, ships and planes and making plastics.
Fossil fuels are finite and they create potential long-term havoc as the CO2 embedded in our air has now reached over 50% higher levels than at the start of the industrial revolution in the 1850s. Fossil fuels cannot last forever and only about 5-10 countries in the world export oil and gas to any large degree – forming a group called OPEC+ that restricts the production of the energy to keep prices high.
The UK is not one of these nations, despite operations in the North Sea. The lack of control over the oil markets means that even in the heyday of oil and gas at $150+/bbl, UK production of gas and oil was less than its consumption.
A simple analysis of our oil and gas history shows that we cannot supply all the oil and gas we require for national consumption even if we were totally unconstrained – we do not have the reservoirs to do it now or especially in the far future. In contrast – the UK has a commanding position in offshore wind power generation, solid investments in solar, and high potential in battery and EV developments such as EV gigafactories in the UK North East.
To give an example of the potential of green energy, in January this year the Scottish government awarded 25GW new offshore wind capacity - around 30% of total UK power demand - at an estimated construction cost of £50bn. 50% of this is expected to be spent in local supply chains over the coming years. As well as providing local jobs, this project will reduce our dependence on imported gas by the same amount - putting the UK on the road to a potential future of true energy independence.
The energy transition underway is at a vast scale and will transform industries and national wealth. Britain would do well to be at the forefront t of this transition rather than being isolated and continuing to depend on imported fossil fuels.