Ending the UK’s dependence on Russian diesel

Appalled at the Russian atrocities in Ukraine, many western leaders are talking about embargoing Russian oil. In light of this, the UK has announced that it intends to phase-out imports of Russian oil by the end of 2022. The UK does not consume much Russian gas, but we do have a little-known reliance on Russian diesel. This blog examines our dependency on Russian diesel, alongside possible mitigations.

The UK consumes around 20-25,000,000 tonnes of diesel a year, around half of which comes from imports. Domestic production of diesel has been steadily declining in recent years, and increases in demand have been met by rising imports. Around a third of our imports come directly from Russia, and all told 18% of the diesel that goes in people’s cars comes directly from Russia. 

Even more of our diesel comes indirectly from Russia.

The UK’s second largest supplier of diesel is the Netherlands, which extracts next to no oil itself and is a trading hub with supplies of diesel and oil products largely originating from elsewhere, including Russia. Russia also supplies a tenth of our crude oil imports, some of which gets refined into diesel.

How much diesel do we need?

The vast majority of the UK’s demand for diesel comes from road transport. When we publish new car registration statistics at the start of every month, we love to talk about how UK motorists are shunning diesels. The reality is that there are still 12 million diesel cars on the road. That number has only recently peaked and is starting to decline, but there is a way to go before we are rid of diesel cars.

As the number of diesel cars on the road is starts to decline, our diesel consumption may be starting to fall. At the start of the pandemic, the government started publishing weekly road transport fuel sales volumes to show how different parts of the country were reacting to lockdown measures.

Petrol and diesel sales have been up and down as Coronavirus measures have been lifted and reintroduced, but there is some evidence that diesel is starting to fall faster than petrol use.

In recent months, petrol and diesel sales have fallen as people increasingly worked from home during the Omicron wave. Usually in lockdowns, petrol sales fall faster than diesel, because diesel is used for freight and essential services. However, recently it has been the other way around, with diesel sales falling faster than petrol.

Is this a sign that the decline in numbers of diesel cars is starting to feed through into declines in diesel consumption?

How the UK can reduce its reliance on Russian diesel

While a number of essential services are reliant on diesel (trains, freight, emergency backup generators), the 12 million diesel cars on the road are a significant consumer. It is not possible to replace these cars overnight, but there are things we can do to reduce diesel consumption rapidly. The government could get high mileage diesel cars replaced with electric cars, and encourage everyone else to drive less.

Focus EV incentives on high-mileage drivers

In the UK, a quarter of all cars are responsible for around half of all car miles. And the top ten percent of cars by annual mileage drive a quarter of annual total car miles. In other words, there is a small number of drivers that do a significant share of all miles. These drivers are disproportionately large consumers of transport fuels. We know that diesel cars are favoured by such drivers, because of the fuel economy advantages of diesel cars. These drivers include taxis, rental cars, as well as public service vehicles such as police cars - any car that is not often sitting parked. 

By focusing incentives for electric cars on these drivers, the UK can dramatically reduce its dependence on road fuels. Ministers should look at whether it is possible to target the plug-in car grant at such drivers, and the forthcoming targets for manufacturers to sell more EVs (the ZEV Mandate) should be targeted at high mileage drivers. There are currently no incentives available for drivers in the second hand market. The government should look at incentivising high mileage drivers in the second hand market to switch to the growing number of EVs that are available second hand.

Encourage behaviour change

The data on fuel sales during the pandemic shows just how dramatic and rapid the effects of mass behaviour change can be on demand for diesel. Behaviour changes in response to Covid-19 have already reduced our diesel consumption to levels last seen in 2005. Encouraging people to get out of their cars can be an extremely effective way of reducing diesel consumption, with measures such as allocating more road space for active travel, and ensuring that public transport is competitive with the cost of motoring.

Taken together, these two measures can rapidly, effectively and permanently reduce the UK’s dependence on Russia for its diesel. It will bring benefits for climate change mitigation, as well as public health by reducing the noxious pollution that is choking our cities. It will also mean that people can get around without supporting Russia’s military spending.

Sources

Diesel demand and import statistics: Digest of UK Energy Statistics, tables 3.1, 3.2-3.4. Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (2021).

UK licensed car statistics: Vehicle Licensing Statistics, table VEH0203. Department for Transport (2021).

Fuel sales: New AutoMotive analysis of Average road fuel sales and stock levels. Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (3 March 2022 update).