Just a fad

A Systemic Challenge 

The last few years have been punctuated by headlines of new government incentives, and speculations on policies geared towards EVs and their drivers. From the ban on the sales of new petrol and diesel cars in 2030, to the Zero Emissions Vehicle Mandate - much of the transition to electric has so far presented itself as a set of political and economic developments which are beyond the remit of the typical EV enthusiast. 

Despite the benefits of switching to EVs outweighing perceived convenience of petrol and diesel vehicles, the transition to electric continues to come up against barriers such as the Osborne Effect, and the need for a faster rollout of infrastructure, amongst others. 

One such barrier is how society at large perceives electric vehicles (and their drivers), social acceptability, and perceptions behind driving an electric vehicle.

Indeed, in a world where 51% of any given group is required to initiate change (according to classical stability analysis, anyway) - we are still a long way away from EVs being the default perception of the automobile. With a current share of just 1.1% EV when all cars on the road are considered, is the “electric revolution” just a techy fad?

At New AutoMotive, we would like to reframe this narrative.

51% is not the goal

First of all, let’s address the 51% figure - applied as the marker of ‘majority’ in a wide variety of systems. It must be noted that when discussing social systems, a mathematical majority is not required to initiate change. In their paper - Prof. D. Centola et al assessed social ‘tipping points’ through controlled experiments. Their research found that when the number of people in agreement was roughly 25% of the group, the opinion of the majority could be tipped to that of the minority.

When aiming for 25%, we must also note that we - as EV enthusiasts - do not necessarily need to address the entire car fleet of the UK (roughly 32 million vehicles), since a mere fraction of that is actively in the market for a new car. In essence, the aim is the consensus within the buyer segment of the population, in any given year. By persuading buyers to make the switch, we can begin to trigger social change within the car industry and markets.

Indeed, when looking at the EV revolution poster child - Norway - we see that 67.1% of all cars registered in December 2020 were electric. Despite this, only 16% of all cars are EVs. This is not necessarily a negative, as it goes to show that what is driving the transition is the consensus of new car buyers, as opposed to that of all existing drivers.

In summary - if projections are to be believed, a consistent 25% in new sales could become the new tipping point for mass electrification of cars - projected by some analysts to occur in the UK as early as 2023. With that in mind the systemic challenge of increasing EV sales, or market share is - whilst still a challenge - an achievable task.

Cumulative EV registrations has been steadily increasing. Source: Cumulative UK EV Registrations

Not a fad

Having reframed the task at hand it becomes clear that EVs - more likely than not - are here to stay, and will eventually come to dominate the market. As seen from our latest data, 2021 has seen extraordinary growth in the market share of electric vehicles around the UK.

Nevertheless, challenges remain. The ongoing chip shortage - as an example - has already seen would-be buyers being turned away from making new car purchases. We also know that the state of the transition will be heavily dependent on the specifics of the ZEV Mandate, as well as market forces within the automotive industry. Lastly, negative public perceptions should not be discounted as a statistical insignificance which can be swept under the rug of technological progress. After all, even Norway has its EV-related challenges.

The point of this piece is not to encourage complacency, or to present the transition to EVs as a done deal - but rather to encourage positive discussion of the genuine challenges we must overcome. In this instance, the 1.1% EV market share just isn’t it.

The UK has already exceeded the 25% sales mark on previous occasions. We now need to see this become the rule - not the exception.

Source: EV Market Share