Europe’s Transition to EVs: A Snapshot

The UK is not the only country on a journey towards electrification. The nations of Europe are driving ahead with their own transitions. With the Fitfor55 package, which specifies that all cars must emit zero CO2 from their tailpipes, likely to act as a de facto ban on petrol, diesel and hybrid vehicles in Europe come 2035, an effective countdown has begun. European countries must now ensure they will be able to transition in such a way that causes minimal disruption to the lives of their citizens. The work done now will likely determine just how prepared a country will be for this deadline.

The Tortoise & the Hare: Leaders & Laggards in Europe’s Transition

The below chart, taken from New AutoMotive’s European dashboard, shows the number of EVs sold in each European country as a percentage of total new vehicle registrations in 2021. It is not surprising to see Norway leading the pack, with 65% of all of its new vehicle sales being fully electric. Norway offers generous and effective incentives to support drivers making the switch to an EV, which effectively make electric models cheaper to buy than their petrol and diesel counterparts. It is striking that hybrids accounted for 22% of the non-battery electric vehicle sales in Norway in 2021, compared to only 13% combined for diesel and petrol. A total collapse of the market for new ICE vehicles has occurred in the last few years. Following this shift in the market, Norway is beginning to roll back some of the pro-EV incentives it offers. Norway’s transition faces a test once these incentives are removed; without them, will its high figures of EV take-up fall?

At the opposite end of the chart to Norway sits Poland, where just 1% of new car registrations in 2021 were electric. This figure is discouraging, but over the last few years the Polish government has begun to support EV take-up, and in June 2020 started offering a host of incentives for electric cars and vans. Poland has the dirtiest power grid in Europe, and is heavily dependent on coal to produce its electricity. Despite this, in a worst case scenario where an EV is manufactured in China and run in Poland it remains 37% cleaner to run over a lifetime in Poland, compared to a petrol vehicle. This highlights that, even in a worst case scenario, EVs are still better for the environment and health than ICE alternatives, and will only become more so as Poland’s energy transition gathers pace. Each European country is transitioning at a different pace, and being at the bottom of this chart for 2021 does not necessarily mean there are not positive policies being taken to promote the take-up of EVs by a country. 

Divisions on the Continent: North vs East

The top 10 countries on this chart are largely from Northern and Western Europe. Romania is the highest performing Central or Eastern European country, coming in at 15th with 5% of sales being electric in 2021. The prominence of Northern and Western European countries towards the top end of this chart highlights the contrast between the quicker pace of the transitions in Northern and Western European countries, and the slower pace of countries in Central and Eastern Europe. This division poses a problem to the implementation of the Fitfor55 package, and the majority of voices opposing the package have come from Central and Eastern European countries. Some of these countries feel like they are being forced into a transition which is simply not viable for them. Going forward, It will be imperative that the right support is offered to these countries as they transition. Central and Eastern countries' new car markets tend to be smaller, with the majority of sales coming from imported used vehicles. This market may hold the key to the switch for these countries. As the boom in electric vehicle take-up is a recent phenomenon, it may take a while for second-hand EVs to filter down into this market. 

Play to Win: UK Must Compete with Europe’s Quickest Transitions

Despite no longer being in the EU, the UK has also set a phase-out date for 2035 and comparison with the Northern and Western EU states is a helpful barometer of the progress of Britain's own electric transition. For 2021 the UK just scraped into the top 10 countries in Europe, with just under 10% of new car sales being electric. This is down from 7th in 2020 - it is vital that the UK does not see itself falling down this list. Being a right hand drive country already sets it apart, and it could stand to lose out on investment and vehicle priority if it falls any further.

Actions Have Consequences: Manufacturers & Accountability

In order for a transition to electric to succeed in any country, manufacturers need to be making EVs to sell. Although it is important to monitor how countries are performing, we also need to look at manufacturer's performance as a critical element of the transition. The graph below shows the number of BEVs sold by each manufacturer in the European market, compared to the number of ICE vehicles sold. A number of manufacturers have pledged to fully electrify in the coming decades, and we should see more creep up to the left hand side of the graph. However, at the moment we can see the majority of manufacturers sitting in the top right hand side of the graph - showing that although they are producing BEVs they are also continuing to produce many more ICE vehicles. Each of these ICE vehicles represents a vehicle that will be polluting roads in Europe for years to come. Demand for electric vehicles has far outstripped supply for years. Given this, government policies - including the sales phase-outs and sales mandates - will be a critical means of holding manufacturers to account and ensuring they quickly shift production.

Measuring & Monitoring: Tracking EV Transitions Internationally

Monitoring the transition will be key to ensuring its success by creating accountability, both for countries and manufacturers, as we get closer to the phase out dates. Since its inception, New AutoMotive has helped provide accountability in the UK’s transition, through its world class data tools and expert insight. Going forward, we are also committed to helping facilitate this accountability globally. To reach their potential as a tool to combat the climate crisis, electric vehicles must become the vehicle of choice not just in Britain, Norway, and Iceland, but throughout the whole of Europe and the wider world.