Predicting UK BEV sales (part 1)
2020 has seen sales of all new cars drop by 30% overall in the UK, whilst battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales have increased by over 150% - this means 1 in every 16 cars purchased in 2020 was a BEV.
Sales trends in BEVs are entering a period of very strong growth, despite economic and pandemic issues. With the UK government’s recently-announced 2030 phase-out of new fossil-fuelled cars, that trend looks set to continue.
The next 12-24 months will be hugely important in the UK’s transition to transport electrification. So what will the next year hold?
We predict 10,500 BEVs sold in the UK in Nov 2020
Overall we project sales of about 97,000 BEVs in 2020
And in 2021 sales we predict BEV sales will increase 70-80% YoY to 170-180k BEVs
BEV market share will be 11% by the end of the 2021, up from 7% by the end of this year.
By the end of 2021 we forecast that there will be over 350,000 BEVs on UK roads travelling over 3 billion miles per year on electricity
Our model is based on an assumption of 95% market share of EV sales by 2030 consistent with the UK 2030 ICE Ban, plus recent sales data, and the typical seasonality of UK new car sales (peaking in March and September).
Using SMMT forecasts, and our own estimates, we assume 2m cars will be sold in the UK in 2021
As the 2030 target is just over 100 months away, prompt measurement and analysis should ensure we support the UK’s effort to electrify as far as possible and react to new issues and opportunities.
We will regularly assess how our prediction matches reality and comment on the differences to actuals. We hope this will provide the momentum for car companies, dealers and buyers, to quickly develop their business plans in light of the new data in sales and trends - our forecast of EV sales growth is for example 15% higher than SMMT surveys, and that may have a strong impact on business planning.
Technology change is disruptive, and we will see major shifts in EV sales in the coming months - for those getting ahead of that change it may make a large difference, right now, to their success in planning and actions.
