Europe’s auto industry in 5 charts
Five charts caught our eye, in the European automotive industry trade body’s latest statistical publication earlier this month. You can read the other 60 or so charts in the ACEA Automobile Industry Pocket Guide 2024/25.
Many more European countries than commonly thought are very exposed to the fortunes of the car industry.
1. The number of polluting vehicles is increasing
Whilst average emissions have fallen a bit - 2% between 2022 and 2023 - the number of higher emitting (130g/km+) vehicles is going up quite sharply - from 22% in 2016 to 38% in 2023..
Whilst the share of cleanest vehicles (mostly EVs and PHEVs with some hybrids) has gone up from 12% to 23%, it has risen more slowly than the most polluting vehicles. The average older ICE vehicle appears to be cleaner than the new sales.
Perhaps then it’s just as well as that —
2. Cars in many countries are so old that if they were people they could vote
In Greece the average age of cars is 17.3 years, and remembers the financial crash, Pavarotti and Back to Black by Amy Winehouse. In comparison most UK cars are off the road by that point. Cars in Latvia, Estonia and Czechia all average 15+ years too.
Luxembourg, followed by Austria, Denmark and Ireland have the youngest average car age. Which also explains why —
3. Most EU countries don’t buy many new cars. Richer economies are pivotal to the transition.
Ireland, which has younger cars than the EU average but buys cars less frequently, is the only EU country to drive on the left. This means its second hand market - uniquely in the EU - is linked with the UK’s, rather than other member states.
Elsewhere 14 out of 27 nations buy fewer than 20 cars per 1,000 inhabitants, whilst Bulgaria and Romania barely buy any new cars at all - meaning that their progress towards electrification is almost wholly dependent on wealthier members making the switch and providing the flow of second hand vehicles in future years. Calling for the EU to halt decarbonisation whilst chargepoint networks in countries without any EVs catch up is completely irrational.
Luxembourg, by contrast, buys 9 times as many new cars per capita as Romania, and 12 times as many as Bulgaria. It’s key for the EU’s transition that high car buying countries keep up demand. In this respect the large new car buying economies of, Germany and France - as well as Italy - are all laggards, with around 80% or more of their sales being new ICE or hybrid.
4. The fastest growing exporters of cars to the EU are Japan and Turkey - not China
Between 2019 and 2023 Japan increased the value of its exports from around €5.5bn to around €11bn, whilst Turkey saw export growth from less than €500m to around €13bn. Korea also saw exports grow by close to 100%, whilst China’s growth was of the order of 10%, and UK exports went backwards.
Which is relevant because —
5. Five other EU countries are more dependent on car manufacturing jobs than Germany.
Slovakia, Sweden, Romania, Czechia and Hungary all have more than 12% of their manufacturing jobs in the auto industry. Workforces in many of these countries are as threatened by offshoring to Turkey as they are by competition from China.
The answer is not tariffs to make the vehicles that the Commission wants us to buy more expensive, but partnerships and incentives to get those vehicles made in Europe.