
Notes from New AutoMotive
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Still thinking of ‘Geoff’ when you hear ‘EV’?
With just two seats (garden chairs), a top speed of 15.4 mph (slower with the lights on), and a range of just 20 miles, Geoff was a somewhat trailblazing electric car built in 2009 on the BBC’s Top Gear in an attempt to create an electric car that was better than the Riva G-Wiz. But not all electric cars are like Geoff, and people might be surprised at how far you can go on a single charge.
Going electric: a solution to range anxiety?
It turns out that a switch to electric vehicles may be the best way to avoid range anxiety in your car. The current fuel panic gripping the UK highlights a wider truth about human behaviour, and the reality of range anxiety - it also highlights the fragility of the fossil fuel infrastructure we rely on, and the new, much more resilient alternative of electric cars.
30% jump in EV sales, but why?
“September is often a bumper month for EV sales, but even these statistics surprised us. Twice as many people bought electric cars as bought diesel cars, showing the ongoing slump in sales of polluting diesels. In many UK cities - Newcastle, Bristol, London, Oxford, Cambridge and Birmingham, the figures suggest that 1 in 5 cars bought are now fully electric.“
-Ben Nelmes, Head of Policy and Research at New AutoMotive
Global EV dominance: five things to consider
Six million EVs on the road means a lifetime reduction in tail-pipe emissions of over 150 million tonnes to date. With the EV market entering a phase where its impact is getting noticeable, a closer look at the chart reveals at least five key issues that point to how the global EV market may now play out.
Are EVs about to go mainstream?
“August’s figures are yet more evidence that the transition to electric vehicles is gathering pace. The UK will benefit if the government acts now to ensure that the charging infrastructure is rolled out rapidly. This summer, we heard some people suggest that the UK should try to resist the inevitable transition to EVs; doing so would be like building sandcastles against the incoming tide.”
-Ben Nelmes, Head of Policy and Research at New AutoMotive
“You cannot displace horses” - History’s guide to the future of EVs.
As we debate the fine details of the transport transition from internal combustion engines (ICE) to EVs, it is useful to stand back and see if the switch is falling into a predictable pattern, or if history is this time a false steer. Sales of Model T Fords (from 1908 - 1916) and Teslas (from 2012- 2020), in fact do follow an absolute trend that indicates history providing a clue.
Petrol is dead, is Diesel next?
“July’s new car registrations data is further evidence of the quiet revolution that is taking place in the UK car market. In July 2019, 96% of new cars were either petrol or diesel. Now, just over half of new cars bought are petrol, and we expect diesel cars to become a niche part of the market by the end of the year.”
-Ben Nelmes, Head of Policy and Research at New AutoMotive
1 in 10 new cars is an EV
“Electric car sales saw strong growth in June, with one in ten new cars registered in the UK now fully electric, with zero emissions at the tailpipe. While petrol remains the most popular fuel type, the growth of registrations of new hybrid vehicles is a concern. Hybrids are not zero emissions cars, and the UK needs to see faster growth in zero emissions, fully electric cars to meet its net zero target.”
-Ben Nelmes, Head of Policy and Research at New AutoMotive
Volkswagen is topping the charts, again
“Across the UK demand for electric cars continues to grow, with the most significant surge in sales happening in the North East. Polluting diesel car sales continue to decline, and in London and Newcastle there are now more new electric cars sold each month than new diesel vehicles.”
- Ben Nelmes, Head of Policy and Research at New AutoMotive
Mapping new car registrations in the UK: our approach
The Electric Car Count is a tool and data series that gives people information about the UK car market on a monthly basis. We were delighted to see it featured in the Times and the Guardian last month. If you haven’t yet explored the interactive tool, take a look and let us know what you think.
China Plug-in sales reach 10% but that’s not the main story
Plug-in car sales in China breached the magical threshold of 10% market share in April 2021, but that is not the main story. Why? - because EV sales in China have been on the up for several years. No, the real story is three other factors, and they point possibly to a very large shift in the world of automobiles.
The secret EV agenda revealed
In an alternative imagined world where CO2 was a benign molecule that did no harm, there is a fundamental question to ask – would electric vehicles still be a better choice than internal combustion engine or hybrid-fossil fuel cars for transport? The answer may surprise you - as EVs provide numerous benefits beyond their environmental credentials (which should still not be overlooked).
BEV registrations are on the rise
“The race for EV market share is on. We’re seeing an increasing number of car manufacturers trying secure market share. This is good news for consumers: it means more choice of electric cars for those wishing to make the switch and access all the benefits of owning an EV.”
-Ben Nelmes, Head of Policy and Research at New AutoMotive
Low Range EVs: a feature, not a bug
As battery prices fall, you can either go further for a certain price, or go 100 miles for lower and lower cost. Many Chinese consumers are choosing the latter. Low range EVs are a feature, not a bug - and they are creating a whole new market. Does this mean that Tesla’s reign is over, or will Western consumers reject the paradigm?
The race for EV market share is under way
Last year, the UK government fired the starting gun on the biggest race in the history of the car industry. By 2030, all new cars sold in the UK must either be fully electric, or a hybrid that is able to travel a significant distance with zero emissions. As the battle lines get drawn, and the leaders emerge - the eventual winner is still not obvious, but some observations can be drawn.
The mysterious rise in re-used reg numbers
How much do people care about their car’s number plate? Is one generation of people more likely than others to see their registration number as a fashion accessory? This is the story of a mystery that emerged during analysis of big data about UK vehicles. At New AutoMotive, we’re using data about every private registered vehicle to track the UK’s progress switching to electric vehicles and zero emissions road transport.
2020 in review: the start of something big?
2020 was a year of profound change for the UK car market. The coronavirus pandemic severely disrupted car manufacturing and sales - alongside the government’s announcement to ban the sales of new petrol and diesel vehicles. What lessons can we draw from such an extraordinary year?
Predicting UK BEV sales (part 2)
In early December, ahead of SMMT formal statistics, we predicted that 10,500 new fully battery electric cars (BEVs) were sold in the UK in November: the actual number was 10,345, for a remarkable 9.1% market share of all new cars sold. In this piece, we dissect these figures to understand what this means for consumers, policy-makers, and the automotive industry.
Predicting UK BEV sales (part 1)
2020 has seen sales of all new cars drop by 30% overall in the UK, whilst battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales have increased by over 150%. This means 1 in every 16 cars purchased in 2020 was a BEV. What does this mean for the automotive industry, policy-makers, and consumers?
The ICE phase out: a Goldilocks moment
The UK government has chosen to announce the phase out of sales of petrol and diesel cars at just the right time. We are at a Goldilocks moment: just when EVs are becoming affordable, but before they become so cheap that we remain stuck in the past with the sharply declining technology of combustion engines. What does this mean for drivers?